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ADV STAS JUNKIES, 34HR 133 RBI -2,3 WAR


ADV STAS JUNKIES, 34HR 133 RBI -2,3 WAR

Hey PC addicts.

Here is a topic I wan' t to bring in.

How are nowadays advance stats accurate and relevant.

I've always been an advance stats junkie... but this player stats should create at least a small doubt in advance stats absolute real accuracy.
This is somebody real MLB stats for a season

.298 BAT AVG, .354 OBP, .541 SLG, 38 doubles, 34 HR, 133 RBI...

END RESULTS= -2,3 WAR

who is that player, an can that shake WAR stats credibility ???

For me this is a sign of WAR still being a good but still not that accurate statistic

Your Thoughts ????

Re: ADV STAS JUNKIES, 34HR 133 RBI -2,3

It’s 1999 Dante Bichette

An .899 ops in a league where average was .771 PLU he played in Coors

That gave him a 102 OPS+

Basically league average. WAR gives him 6 batting runs above average, so that is consistent.

But Bichette was a below average baserunner- 6/12 SB and only 34% of extra bases taken Vs league average of 39%. WAR has him -5 base running runs

On top of that he was a horrendous fielder: -34 fielding runs. This is reflected in basic fielding stats- .951 foot vs league average .977 in LF, and a 1.86 range factor Vs a 2.0 league average in LF

A basically average hitter who is a terrible base runner and fielder will be a negative value player overall. No surprise.

Re: Re: ADV STAS JUNKIES, 34HR 133 RBI

does the -34 runs come from fielding pct and range factor? It just seems like an outlier compared to the rest of his career. For instance, he had -4 and -2 in 1998 and 2000.

Re: Re: ADV STAS JUNKIES, 34HR 133 RBI

Thanks Josh, for this great anwser. since this is all correct... but I am still in a doubt...

I personally would never take Bichette in my team... but he still has to be flagged with the great numbers he put in... Not a lot of guys would of done so...

I personnally think a guy like Moises Alou would of trashed Bichette numbers...

but

Would this means in the same year 1999, a real MLB player with a .259 bat avg, .324 obp abv. .341 slg av.. 666 OPS, be way better than Dante Bichette ????

This is where I raise a flag and say no.... Advance stats are still to be taken with a piece of doubt... There is still a lot of rafining to be done....

Re: ADV STAS JUNKIES, 34HR 133 RBI

It comes from Total Zone Rating. I was just pointing out that the advanced fielding stat agrees with basic stats in that year.

He was also -19 in 1995, but yes, -34 is his career worst. BUT if you look at total zone per 1,200 innings played, it is not an outlier

1990: -44
1991: -29
1995: -22
1998: -17
1999: -33
2001: -40

Re: ADV STAS JUNKIES, 34HR 133 RBI

I agree with you generally. Bill James has some really excellent critiques of WAR and of advanced defensive stats. I like WAR (and James Win Shares), but they are FAR from perfect. If Bichette was flagged at -10 defensive runs instead of -34 then I believe he would be positive WAR for the season. I doubt those fielding stats are THAT confident that he was -34 vs -10

Re: Re: ADV STAS JUNKIES, 34HR 133 RBI

From Bichette, to Hawpe, Holliday, Spillborgh, Cuddyer, Blackmon and the list goes on... for me Coors Field probably cant evaluate defense for outfielders properly...

Re: ADV STAS JUNKIES, 34HR 133 RBI

The thing is the Rockies have never even tried to put elite defensive outfielders out there, when they are the team that needs them the most. Even now they're throwing Kris Bryant out there.