Notice: Change Log Updated
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I understand that fire indicates how often a player plays in God Mode. What does the new stat actually indicate? And how will it change the players’ performance?
Does it mean that Barry Bonds will be regular Barry Bonds all the time, instead of Super Barry Bonds 25% of the time because his fire was 25?
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I'm a little confused also - just drafted 2 Auto League ATG teams and only a few players get the WAR rating. I'm assuming that undervalued players will get a boost if they have the rating and everyone else is "flat" ? And if you are in a league using WAR, Fire is no longer utilitzed? I guess I'm re-learning the game again.......
- The Sheik
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Good questions. So for one, it's not a mix of both, most Auto Leagues are still on the Classic Fire rating. Once the current Auto Leagues end, they will convert. So as of right now, very few Auto Leagues will be using the new Fire number. You'll know either by looking at the League Settings table, or in the player tables you'll start to see WAR instead of Fire.
As for how it works, it works just the same, it's just a different number and hence will be a much lower for just about all players. So, if Barry Bonds oWAR is 8, it means he'll be on God Mode 8% instead of the previous 25.
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We'll see how it plays out - in theory, I like the concept and it seems to have a "level the playing field" vibe to it that I can dig.
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Understood. But without asking how you make the secret sauce, how were these numbers determined for players relative to each other?
For example, what is the rationale behind Babe Ruth having a 12 oWar and Lou Gehrig having a zero.
There are ALOT of elite level players with a zero oWar. This seems like it’s gonna diminish their value considerably compared to similarly ranked players with an oWar of even 7 or 8..
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Sounds like there is something wrong with the data, @Ree can you point me to the league where you're seeing this? I should be able to fix this pretty quick.
The oWAR is not made up by me, it's from their baseball reference numbers. (Keep in mind, WAR does get tweaked by sites over time, so what BR lists may be off from what PC has, but they should mostly be close or the same...)
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@RREE let me know if you're seeing the right stats now, it should be updated.
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It was Auto ATG 223. I drafted it this morning and the numbers were wonky until about an hour ago. Now everything looks proportionate and ok.
Play Ball.
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Can we apply these new numbers to the “see other seasons available” screens?
If you make a change, the oWar is adjusted correctly, but fire is still the category on the screen that lists available seasons..
Just trying to help.
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This should be really interesting, because while this change doesn’t affect Olsen and Carpenter’s (and others’) gaudy slugging percentages, it eliminates the boost they got from an inflated fire boost.
Not sure if that was intentional, but I think it’s a nice compromise for a problem that some of us didn’t really think was a problem.
Kudos Guy.
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@MikeDrop good catch, thanks, I'll look into that. That needs to get fixed.
Also, I'm seeing some players are incorrectly marked as zero WAR, so I'm working now on finding those cases and fixing them, but if you see anything off, feel free to let me know.
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ATG Johan Santana
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Does this de value players who were good with a lot of other good players despite the fact that they may have had an amazing season and thus spreading out the WAR.
For instance, Albert Pujols in 2004 has less WAR but a better OPS than in 2007. I guess it's only by .2, but he was much better in 2004. Maybe the difference is obsolete. I do like OWAR is now a part of the game but I am trying to get a handle on how this impacts the game. I guess we will see.
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Does this de value players who were good with a lot of other good players despite the fact that they may have had an amazing season and thus spreading out the WAR.
For instance, Albert Pujols in 2004 has less WAR but a better OPS than in 2007. I guess it's only by .2, but he was much better in 2004. Maybe the difference is obsolete. I do like OWAR is now a part of the game but I am trying to get a handle on how this impacts the game. I guess we will see.
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@Tru I think that's an argument in favor of WAR being used - if a guy was great at a time when it was easier to hit, he should get less of a boost vs a guy who might have had decent stats but did it in a season where it was really tough to hit. Same for pitchers. If a guy really stood out amongst his peers, he deserves the bigger boost. At least that's one way to look at it.
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That's fair. I think ultimately having owar as a stat is a great idea. Curious to see how it changes the way the game is played.
Any word on the auto franchise updates you teased?
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WAR for Pitchers and Position Players is also environment based - meaning a Position Player in 1968 had it much harder than a Position Player in 1930. Same goes for pitchers in reverse. dWAR is a cumulative stat. It looks like we are utilizing, more or less, the BB Reference #'s for players - this should do something that I always felt was missing from the game; adjusting their performance based on the season averages. I'm looking forward to seeing how this plays out - it should ADD to the players that are used on, at least, a semi-regular basis.
- The Sheik
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Good point sheik, I am looking forward to guys like Cal Ripken 91 and Honus Wagner 1908 to see if they perform better.
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How about Doc? Look up the best single season pitcher war performances. It’s 25 black and white pictures of white guys with handle bar mustaches………and a 20 year old Doc Gooden.
It’s like that Sesame Street skit about which one doesn’t belong 🤣
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Sorry to change the topic, but I've just add the future-restore option to Basketball Waves now as well, and (finally!) the ability to delete all Waves and start over if you need to.
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I like the idea of the OWAR usage.
My main concern is that OWAR calculations implicates a position adjustment.
So 1B, LF and RF are at a disadvantage regarding the use of OWar..
A SS vs a LF with the exact same offensive stats will have a better OWAR.
This then means
With exact equal offensive stats / number outputs for the same given year, a SS will then carry a fairly better advantage than a 1B at getting hot?
For people doubting that positional adjustment is only for DWAR , its not, it also impacts OWAR
here is the link below:
From baseball reference :
oWAR assumes that every player is an average defender and therefore the stat utilizes the player's contributions from baserunning and batting, the positional adjustment (to account for the difference in batting stats at each position) and the replacement runs factor that counts playing time the player kept from going to a replacement level player.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/..
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Guy, if I’m not mistaken, the new oWar value is an exact percentage of the number of games a player is “on fire”, correct?
And the “on fire” effect hasn’t changed?
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I could be completely wrong (my 2 ex-wives would agree), but I don't think it's that simple. For one thing, WAR is a "cumulative" stat, the more you play, the higher your WAR. oWAR is WAR but with fielding value excluded - to answer the previous post, fielding has nothing to do with oWAR - but like WAR, it's cumulative and players who didn't play a significant amount will have lower oWAR. A player who was really good and played full time will have a higher oWAR/WAR rating and it correlates to league averages for the season of the player. Is this clear, or clear as mud ? 🤔🤔🤔😉😉😉😎😎😎
- The Sheik
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I’m comfortable with what oWar is. I just want to be clear what that value means to our leagues.
I’m pretty sure it’s just a recalibration of the fire function. Everyone’s oWar value is lower than their fire value (including pitcher WAR), so the effect should be felt on both sides of the ball. This might actually minimize the overall change, with less juiced pitchers pitching to less juiced hitters. This will:
1) Reward players who were considerably better than their peers (which is really what WAR is intended to do) and
2) Reward players who played at a high level for a whole season, because like Sheik said, WAR is a cumulative stat. Neutralizes the Olsens and Carpenters of the world.
Theses are both GREAT improvements. My only question is if Barry Bonds has a 12 oWAR, does that mean he’s on fire 12% of the time.
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That's the question - it may be a completely different process. Will there still be a symbol in the box score indicating the player's oWAR was being utilized? Will it be an AB by AB process ?
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@Pipl is correct. oWAR is influenced by the position a player plays defensively. The BR language is clear that it includes a positional adjustment. It "assumes that every player is an average defender" and isn't influenced by fielding stats, but it's still influenced by fielding position. This means that, with identical offensive stats and all else equal, a shortstop will have higher oWAR than an outfielder.
I think Guy has already answered that it's akin to Fire. He stated that, if a player's oWAR is 8, he'll be in "God mode" 8% of the time, all else equal.
This means that, players with identical offensive stats and all else equal, a shortstop will be in "God mode" more often than an outfielder.
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This really changes the game completely. I still find myself gravitating towards guys that the previous system valued, Nolan Ryan's, Rick Monday's and John Lowensteins. Is Steve Carlton now exponentially more valuable? Exciting to see. When will franchise leagues pick up owar?
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That was a good catch by Plpl recognizing the subtlety of position affecting oWAR even if an individual player’s defensive stats don’t. That’s a keen eye for detail that’s clearly evident in the higher oWAR numbers for infielders versus outfielders/firstbasemen with similar stats.
But the reduction of the overall effect really makes the difference almost mute. Almost every significant player has an oWAR between 5 and 9, with a handful of outliers over that. If a shortstop like Ripken or Yount gets to be on fire 1 or 2 percent more of the time because they play a defensive position, that’s fine with me. It’s 1 or 2 more games over the course of the season.
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I’ve been looking at Carlton for three days thinking the same thing😂
And he’s not the only one.
My guess is that his value improves more because everyone else is coming back down to earth, rather than his performance improving significantly.
The real question is - If the effect of fire (or oWar) was essentially halved for both pitchers and hitters, what will be the cumulative effect? I’m actually a little excited.
But I’m also a 14 year old in a 45 year old’s body.
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I will also add Rreebe916,
That speed and base running is also impacting OWAR, even more than the position adjustment does.
Meaning than also a good baserunner runner will have more chance of getting hot than a 1B also...
1987 Lloyd Moseby bat will be hotter or as hot than a 1987 Andre Dawson, George Bell, Kent HrBek,etc,etc,etc,etc ?
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One issue with the old formula was the weight on power. I like the fact Tony Fernandez is treated on par with other hitters considering he was solid in both BA and OBP (better than Bell and Dawson).
That said, we're talking about small % differences here. The difference between 1987 Bell and Eric Davis is 2% when it comes to how oWAR will be treated. Using 1987 G. Bell as an example, the few positional players ahead of him were all pretty special players.
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But I have to think a cold Papi is better than a hot Tony Fernandez. And the increase in likelihood is only a few percentage points spread out over a whole season.
You’re right. I just think the real world effect is nominal.
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I think all any real Brewer fan and Fav Team fan wants to know is this...how much will it hurt 2013 Khris Davis? Scary time for a Brew Crew Fav Team fan...scary.
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I presume quite a bit rev
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Why would you want Stan Papi, hot or cold?
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From Baseball Reference:
oWAR -- Offensive Wins Above Replacement (everything but Fielding)
The same statistic as Wins Above Replacement for Position
Players (WAR), but with the fielding value excluded.
oWAR + dWAR does not equal WAR.
Adding would count positions twice.
Contains the factor for batting stats, baserunning, a positional adjustment, and the replacement player adjustment.
Factors developed by Sean Smith of BaseballProjection.com
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I had to look up who Stan Papi was.
Well done. 😂
Re: Re: Notice: Change Log Updated
another thought is that if Balks were included in PC that would also assist higher O War for faster runners
