A Theory and I am no Math or SIM Whiz

During Sols recent NCAA Tournament there was a huge amount of WP - part of that is there were several pitchers with very high WP/9 rating so a spike would be expected, however what we actually saw take place was kind of crazy - at one point a team threw 7 WP's in a Single Inning.

I believe the large quantities of WP was due to the fact that the SIM doesn't consider a WP an outcome of an At bat unless the batter walks on the WP - so if the lead off guy reaches, the pitcher could conceivably throw 3 consecutive WP's allowing the base runner to score and if the 1st WP came on an 0-0 Count, the batter STILL hasn't had an outcome to his at bat. and the SIM is stuck in the WP Mode until the at bat ends.

The WP is the only example I can think of that does not end an at bat - Thoughts? there are no Balks in PC

@SCM I think you're onto something. I have noticed that when my pitchers throw WPs, they tend to come in bunches. For example, he might throw three WPs all year, but they are all in the same inning.

GBacci has said that sort of thing shouldn't happen--results are independent, without correlation from one plate appearance to the next.

Agreed - BUT it's the same plate appearance -without an outcome YET which is why I think it is happening, a WP is NOT a guaranteed outcome to an at bat- which would conceivably reset the calculator

Yes, I understand & agree

Good catch - I suspect this really almost never came up because of the typically low odds of a WP, but you're right, based on the stats used, it should not happen more than once in an AB, I can easily fix this.